Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

JHARKHAND, 2004–2019. 4 elections tracked.

Incumbent re-election

66.67

2019 · 8 of 12

Incumbents contesting

85.71

12 of 14 seats

First-time winners

14.29

2 new faces

Turncoats

1 won · strike rate 11.11%

Vs previous

+6.67pp

From 60.0% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 2004–2019

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time

Candidates who switched parties between elections

2019 9 turncoats1 won (11.11%)

2014 16 turncoats0 won (0.0%)

2009 10 turncoats1 won (10.0%)

2004 9 turncoats3 won (33.33%)

How many sitting members sought re-election

2019 12 contesting8 won · 66.67% strike rate

2014 10 contesting6 won · 60.0% strike rate

2009 13 contesting3 won · 23.08% strike rate

2004 14 contesting1 won · 7.14% strike rate

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 66.67% is above the historical average of 39.2%.
66.67% vs avg 39.2%
The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 2004 — only 7.14% of incumbents survived (1 of 14).
Lowest: 2004 at 7.14%
Incumbents fared best in 2019 with a 66.67% re-election rate (8 of 12).
Highest: 2019 at 66.67%
2 winners in 2019 (14.29%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.
2 first-time winners in 2019
Party-switching peaked in 2014 with 16 turncoats, of whom 0 won (0.0% strike rate).
Peak: 16 turncoats in 2014