Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

GUJARAT, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
100.0
2019 · 16 of 16
Incumbents contesting
61.54
16 of 26 seats
First-time winners
38.46
10 new faces
Turncoats
5
0 won · strike rate 0.0%
Vs previous
+42.11pp
From 57.89% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    100.0%
  2. 2014
    57.89%
  3. 2009
    66.67%
  4. 2004
    60.87%
  5. 1999
    65.38%
  6. 1998
    88.0%
  7. 1996
    66.67%
  8. 1991
    58.33%
  9. 1989
    21.05%
  10. 1984
    86.36%
  11. 1980
    40.0%
  12. 1977
    66.67%
  13. 1971
    64.29%
  14. 1967
    80.0%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    38.46%
  2. 2014
    46.15%
  3. 2009
    46.15%
  4. 2004
    23.08%
  5. 1999
    19.23%
  6. 1998
    11.54%
  7. 1996
    34.62%
  8. 1991
    34.62%
  9. 1989
    53.85%
  10. 1984
    19.23%
  11. 1980
    57.69%
  12. 1977
    53.85%
  13. 1971
    41.67%
  14. 1967
    66.67%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 5 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2014 10 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2009 3 turncoats2 won (66.67%)
2004 8 turncoats2 won (25.0%)
1999 8 turncoats2 won (25.0%)
1998 10 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1996 8 turncoats2 won (25.0%)
1991 13 turncoats2 won (15.38%)
1989 6 turncoats5 won (83.33%)
1984 7 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1980 22 turncoats2 won (9.09%)
1977 11 turncoats8 won (72.73%)
1971 14 turncoats9 won (64.29%)
1967 2 turncoats2 won (100.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 16 contesting16 won · 100.0% strike rate
2014 19 contesting11 won · 57.89% strike rate
2009 15 contesting10 won · 66.67% strike rate
2004 23 contesting14 won · 60.87% strike rate
1999 26 contesting17 won · 65.38% strike rate
1998 25 contesting22 won · 88.0% strike rate
1996 21 contesting14 won · 66.67% strike rate
1991 24 contesting14 won · 58.33% strike rate
1989 19 contesting4 won · 21.05% strike rate
1984 22 contesting19 won · 86.36% strike rate
1980 15 contesting6 won · 40.0% strike rate
1977 12 contesting8 won · 66.67% strike rate
1971 14 contesting9 won · 64.29% strike rate
1967 10 contesting8 won · 80.0% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 100.0% is above the historical average of 61.5%.

    100.0% vs avg 61.5%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1962 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 1962 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 2019 with a 100.0% re-election rate (16 of 16).

    Highest: 2019 at 100.0%

  4. 10 winners in 2019 (38.46%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    10 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1980 with 22 turncoats, of whom 2 won (9.09% strike rate).

    Peak: 22 turncoats in 1980
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